10 Million Jobs?

John Kerry has been making a big deal about pledging to create 10 million new jobs in the next four years. It's the focus of his new ad, and has been the center piece of his "economic plan" since late March. He has not been very specific about how he'll create the jobs but he seems quite confident that he can do it.

The problem is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics Data says there are only 8.532 million unemployed right now. With only 5.7% unemployment (which is below the average unemployment for the last three decades) and even if you take into account an increase in population, it could be tough to create 1.5 million more jobs than there are people to take them.

I don't know. You tell me.

If you want to see the data...

Series Id:           LNS11000000 Seasonal Adjusted Series title:        (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level Labor force status:  Civilian labor force Type of data:        Number in thousands Age:                 16 years and over
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
1994	130596	130669	130400	130621	130779	130561	130652	131275	131421	131744	131891	131951
1995	132038	132115	132108	132590	131851	131949	132343	132336	132611	132716	132614	132511
1996	132616	132952	133180	133409	133667	133697	134284	134054	134515	134921	135007	135113
1997	135456	135400	135891	136016	136119	136211	136477	136618	136675	136633	136961	137155
1998	137095	137112	137236	137150	137372	137455	137588	137570	138286	138279	138381	138634
1999	139003	138967	138730	138959	139107	139329	139439	139430	139622	139771	140025	140177
2000	142258(1)	142452	142398	142747	142369	142571	142265	142562	142539	142663	142959	143273
2001	143787	143652	143873	143549	143290	143323	143674	143372	144020	144171	144254	144369
2002	143842	144546	144384	144675	144902	144738	144879	145146	145606	145442	145109	145157
2003	145875(1)	145898	145818	146377	146462	146917	146652	146622	146610	146892	147187	146878
2004	146863(1)	146471	146650
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls in January 2000, January 2003 and January 2004.

 

Series Id:           LNS12000000 Seasonal Adjusted Series title:        (Seas) Employment Level Labor force status:  Employed Type of data:        Number in thousands Age:                 16 years and over
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
1994	121966	122086	121930	122290	122864	122634	122706	123342	123687	124112	124516	124721
1995	124663	124928	124955	124945	124421	124522	124816	124852	125133	125388	125188	125088
1996	125125	125639	125862	125994	126244	126602	126947	127172	127536	127890	127771	127860
1997	128298	128298	128891	129143	129464	129412	129822	130010	130019	130179	130653	130679
1998	130726	130807	130814	131209	131325	131244	131329	131390	131986	131999	132280	132602
1999	133027	132856	132947	132955	133311	133378	133414	133591	133707	133993	134309	134523
2000	136561(1)	136599	136668	137264	136611	136923	136516	136701	136908	137124	137316	137632
2001	137790	137581	137738	137275	137063	136842	137091	136314	136869	136447	136234	136078
2002	135715	136362	136106	136096	136505	136353	136478	136811	137337	137079	136545	136459
2003	137447(1)	137318	137300	137578	137505	137673	137604	137693	137644	138095	138533	138479
2004	138566(1)	138301	138298
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls in January 2000, January 2003 and January 2004.

 

Series Id:           LNS13000000 Seasonal Adjusted Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Level Labor force status:  Unemployed Type of data:        Number in thousands Age:                 16 years and over
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
1994	8630	8583	8470	8331	7915	7927	7946	7933	7734	7632	7375	7230
1995	7375	7187	7153	7645	7430	7427	7527	7484	7478	7328	7426	7423
1996	7491	7313	7318	7415	7423	7095	7337	6882	6979	7031	7236	7253
1997	7158	7102	7000	6873	6655	6799	6655	6608	6656	6454	6308	6476
1998	6368	6306	6422	5941	6047	6212	6259	6179	6300	6280	6100	6032
1999	5976	6111	5783	6004	5796	5951	6025	5838	5915	5778	5716	5653
2000	5698	5853	5730	5483	5758	5648	5749	5861	5631	5540	5643	5641
2001	5997	6072	6136	6274	6227	6481	6583	7057	7151	7723	8020	8291
2002	8126	8184	8278	8578	8397	8384	8400	8335	8269	8363	8565	8698
2003	8428	8581	8519	8799	8957	9245	9048	8929	8966	8797	8653	8398
2004	8297	8170	8352

 

Series Id:           LNS14000000 Seasonal Adjusted Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate Labor force status:  Unemployment rate Type of data:        Percent Age:                 16 years and over
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Annual
1994	6.6	6.6	6.5	6.4	6.1	6.1	6.1	6.0	5.9	5.8	5.6	5.5
1995	5.6	5.4	5.4	5.8	5.6	5.6	5.7	5.7	5.6	5.5	5.6	5.6
1996	5.6	5.5	5.5	5.6	5.6	5.3	5.5	5.1	5.2	5.2	5.4	5.4
1997	5.3	5.2	5.2	5.1	4.9	5.0	4.9	4.8	4.9	4.7	4.6	4.7
1998	4.6	4.6	4.7	4.3	4.4	4.5	4.5	4.5	4.6	4.5	4.4	4.4
1999	4.3	4.4	4.2	4.3	4.2	4.3	4.3	4.2	4.2	4.1	4.1	4.0
2000	4.0	4.1	4.0	3.8	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.1	4.0	3.9	3.9	3.9
2001	4.2	4.2	4.3	4.4	4.3	4.5	4.6	4.9	5.0	5.4	5.6	5.7
2002	5.6	5.7	5.7	5.9	5.8	5.8	5.8	5.7	5.7	5.7	5.9	6.0
2003	5.8	5.9	5.8	6.0	6.1	6.3	6.2	6.1	6.1	6.0	5.9	5.7
2004	5.6	5.6	5.7

Comments

[Charlie on the PA Turnpike]

Now, now Sean... don't try to confuse Sen Kerry's details with facts!!

I had said the same thing, as recently as here, but you provided the stats, which makes your argument all the more credible.

[RWB]

I agree. It can’t be done. I even talked about it at my blog. See the posting for Sunday, March 28, 2004 at http://bushoverkerry.blogspot.com/2004_03_01_bushoverkerry_archive.html titled “10 million jobs can't be created as Kerry promises!”

[Rockbiter]

Hey, I'm an optimist -- I believe in all my heart that Kerry CAN, and WILL find ten million jobs for all of us! How? Simple. We will all have to work another job just to pay for his $900 billion tax increases...(or is it $900 trillion?)

[Sean]

I wish I would have known about Slings and Arrows' post. I wouldn't have had to do the math!