Dick Morris says yes, and lays out a possible McCain win.
Essentially, Morris counts on all of the undecideds breaking for McCain. Sounds like a tall order, but it's not without precedent. This late in the game, he says, most undecideds break against the incumbent, and with 80% of the population thinking that Obama will win, he takes on the characteristics of an incumbent. If Obama is below 49%, and Nader takes his traditional 1.5%, and McCain gets all of the undecideds, McCain wins.
Update: Ed Morrissey comes to much the same conclusion.
How do we know this? Independents have begun to break for McCain. McCain now leads 45-43. A week ago, Obama led 43-38 with 19% undecided. The entire 7% that has come out of the undecided column in that period have gone to McCain, and 12% of them still have to make up their minds. Interestingly, slightly more Democrats than Republicans are undecided — not good news for Obama.
If TIPP is right — and at the moment, they’re occupying a lonely spot among national pollsters — then it calls into question the notion that Obama is leading in all of the battleground states. We’ll see who was right on Tuesday.
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